US stocks are showing surprising resilience as Wall Street increasingly abandons expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Several major financial institutions have recently pushed back their forecasts for monetary easing, with some now expecting the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged throughout 2026.
Yet despite the more hawkish outlook, strategists remain broadly constructive on equities, particularly in the United States.
Standard Chartered, in its second-half 2026 investment outlook published on June 19, said it remains overweight global equities, with a preference for US and Asia ex-Japan stocks.
The bank forecasts the Federal Funds rate will remain in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% through the remainder of 2026, with only a single 25-basis-point cut expected in the first half of 2027.
The bank expects strong corporate earnings and continued economic resilience to support markets despite elevated borrowing costs. It forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 7,950 by mid-2027.
Standard Chartered said the US economy is performing better than many had feared, with second-quarter growth tracking around 2.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis.
Full-year growth is expected to average approximately 2.1%, supported by artificial intelligence-related capital expenditure, a recovering labor market, and increased manufacturing activity.
The constructive outlook for equities comes even as investors adjust to a Federal Reserve that appears increasingly reluctant to ease policy.
Goldman Sachs recently pushed its forecast for the next Fed rate cuts into 2027.
The bank now expects policymakers to leave rates unchanged throughout 2026 before delivering reductions in June and December 2027.
The revision followed stronger-than-expected labor market data and reflects expectations that economic growth and inflation pressures will remain firm.
Citigroup has also delayed its expected easing timeline. The bank now forecasts rate cuts in October and December 2026, followed by another reduction in January 2027, after previously expecting cuts to begin in September.
Meanwhile, UBS Global Wealth Management has shifted its first expected rate cut into 2027, forecasting reductions in March and June next year rather than cuts beginning later this year.
The revisions come after Federal Reserve policymakers signaled a more cautious stance on inflation, prompting investors to reassess expectations that lower rates would arrive quickly.
While equities have largely absorbed the hawkish shift, other asset classes have been less resilient.
Bitcoin was trading near $62,000 on Friday after falling from above $67,000 earlier in the week.
The cryptocurrency has struggled to regain momentum even as stocks recovered, reflecting the pressure that higher interest rates place on speculative assets.
Higher borrowing costs typically reduce the attractiveness of assets that do not generate income, particularly when yields on cash and fixed-income investments remain elevated.
Gold has also weakened. Futures recently fell 1.8% to around $4,173 an ounce after trading above $4,350 earlier in the week.
Rising real yields and a stronger dollar have weighed on demand for the precious metal, which offers no yield to investors.
The divergence has become increasingly pronounced. While stocks continue pushing toward record highs, both Bitcoin and gold have struggled to maintain gains as markets price in a longer period of restrictive monetary policy.
Rather than relying on lower interest rates to justify higher valuations, investors appear increasingly focused on earnings growth and corporate spending trends.
Artificial intelligence investment remains one of the strongest drivers of capital expenditure across the US economy, supporting demand across technology, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors.
Markets briefly wobbled following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting, which underscored policymakers’ concerns about inflation.
However, equities quickly recovered, aided by optimism surrounding an agreement between the United States and Iran that could help stabilize energy markets through the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, Wall Street’s message appears increasingly clear: rate cuts may be further away than previously expected, but many strategists believe strong earnings growth, economic resilience, and continued AI investment can keep supporting equities even in a higher-rate environment.
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]]>SpaceX shares have soared following their blockbuster IPO debut, rising as much as 67% above the $135 offer price and pushing the stock to $225 before recent pullbacks.
Despite the strong early performance, attention is now shifting toward the company’s staggered lockup schedule, which could introduce significant new supply into a tightly held market.
The stock’s early rally has been driven in part by supply-demand imbalances, with only about 639 million shares currently available for trading out of more than 13 billion outstanding shares.
That scarcity has helped amplify volatility and push valuations higher in the immediate post-listing period.
However, analysts and market participants are now focusing on how upcoming unlock events may change that dynamic.
Unlike traditional IPOs that typically impose a 180-day lockup period, SpaceX has implemented a staggered release structure for insider and early investor shares.
According to the IPO framework, share unlocks begin after the company’s first quarterly earnings report, expected in late July or early August.
At that point, 20% of the stock becomes available for sale, with the potential for up to 30% if the stock remains above $175.
Additional tranches follow, including 7% releases on Aug. 20, Sept. 9, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24.
A further 28% unlocks after second-quarter earnings, with the final portion released after Dec. 8, marking the end of the 180-day period.
The structure is designed to disperse the selling from pre IPO shareholders, rather than allowing a single wave of stock to hit the market.
However, the increased supply of shares can still weigh on price action.
Trading research firm AgentSmyth recently observed elevated activity in September put options on SpaceX, suggesting traders are positioning for potential downside moves as additional shares become available for trading following the company’s first quarterly earnings report.
Historical precedents from other IPOs underscore the risk.
Shares of Rivian fell 21% around its lockup expiration in 2022, while Reddit also saw declines ahead of its performance-based lockup release before later stabilizing.
Despite concerns around supply, several factors could counterbalance potential downside pressure.
SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 under a fast-entry rule, allowing index inclusion after just 15 days of trading.
Analysts expect this to trigger $7 billion to $10 billion in forced buying from passive funds tracking the benchmark.
Additionally, trading activity in options and ETFs has already begun influencing price action.
The debut of stock options has created hedging flows that can amplify upward momentum, while leveraged ETF products such as the Direxion SpaceX Bull 2x are expected to generate additional forced buying.
While short-term volatility is likely to be shaped by staggered unlocks and trading flows, longer-term valuation will depend on earnings and growth expectations.
Expectations remain high, including Musk’s previously stated $1 trillion revenue target by 2031.
For now, however, investors are weighing whether rising share supply from lockup expirations will cool momentum in a stock that has already experienced extreme early gains and rapid shifts in sentiment.
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]]>QuantumScape (QS) shares are ripping higher on June 18th as investors react to a major new OEM partnership.
The solid-state battery pioneer announced a multi-year joint research agreement with Honda R&D to co-develop next-gen lithium-metal battery platform architectures and manufacturing processes.
And while QuantumScape stock is already up some 15% following the announcement, a solid case can be made that longer-term implications of this agreement are far more bullish than the market realizes.
The Honda partnership is particularly bullish for QS shares because it isn’t just an “exploratory” memorandum of understanding (MoU).
In fact, the joint research deal actually follows the successful completion of a formal technology evaluation agreement; the Japanese conglomerate conducted hands-on technical studies and competitive benchmarking.
For an OEM like Honda to explicitly say the technology demonstrated “compelling and unique advantages” means QuantumScape’s solid-state lithium-metal platform passed a highly restrictive gauntlet.
Honda’s validation shifts QS from the realm of “speculative” lab tech into a commercially vetted asset.
Passing a legacy titan’s strict benchmarking proves that the firm’s proprietary ceramic separator can handle real-world stress, effectively de-risking the tech in the eyes of the broader automotive industry.
Until recently, the major bear case against QuantumScape shares was its heavy reliance on the Volkswagen (via PowerCo).
By bringing Honda officially into a multi-year development and manufacturing process plan, QS proves it can capture multiple global OEMs; it transforms the company from a VW-captive project into a true independent industry standard-bearer.
A subtle but vital note in the press release came from Atsushi Ogawa (COO of Honda R&D), who said there’s potential “across a range of applications, including automotive.”
Honda is a powerhouse in motorcycles, aviation (HondaJet), and power equipment, and solid-state benefits – higher energy density, lower weight, and rapid charging – are arguably more valuable in aviation and small-scale mobility than standard passenger vehicles.
This dramatically widens QuantumScape’s total addressable market and positions the company as a cross‑sector electrification supplier rather than a single‑OEM battery bet.
Ultimately, the Honda agreement represents a fundamental pivot point for QS stock, lifting it out of its single-customer silo and validating its tech on a global stage.
The market is currently treating this as a fleeting, headline-driven momentum, but the structural implications run far deeper.
By proving its proprietary tech can meet the stringent demands of multiple top-tier OEMs – and unlocking massive potential addressable markets in aviation and micro-mobility – QuantumScape is effectively rewriting its long-term bull case.
For investors looking past the immediate double-digit rally, this partnership sets a resilient new floor for the company’s valuation as next-gen electrification edges closer to commercial reality.
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]]>Nvidia stock (NVDA) edged lower on Wednesday, continuing a recent stretch of underperformance relative to other semiconductor stocks.
Shares of the chipmaker fell 0.5% to $206.91 in early trading after declining 2.4% during Tuesday’s session.
The weakness contrasted with gains elsewhere in the semiconductor sector.
Advanced Micro Devices and Intel each rose roughly 3%, while Broadcom advanced about 6%.
Meanwhile, the broader market was mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 252 points, or 0.5%, and reached another all-time intraday high.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite traded near flat as investors monitored oil prices and awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision
Despite remaining one of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia has lagged many semiconductor peers in recent months.
Through Tuesday’s close, Nvidia shares were up 11% for the year. By comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor Index had gained 88% over the same period.
Investors increasingly appear focused on how spending on AI infrastructure is being distributed across a broader group of companies rather than concentrating solely on Nvidia’s graphics processing units.
Initially, Nvidia’s primary challenge came from rival GPU maker Advanced Micro Devices.
However, competition has expanded to include custom chip developers as well as companies focused on central processing units and specialized AI hardware.
Large technology companies that have traditionally been among Nvidia’s biggest customers are increasingly investing in internally developed chips as they seek to lower the cost of AI infrastructure deployments.
Microsoft and Meta Platforms have both continued investing heavily in data centers and AI infrastructure, prompting closer scrutiny of capital spending levels across the industry.
Epoch AI researcher Isabel Juniewicz said in a post on Tuesday that spending trends among hyperscale cloud providers remain significant.
“While the exact point at which cash capex will exceed inflows varies by company, aggregate cash capex across hyperscalers is on track to overtake operating cash flow around Q3 2026,” Juniewicz wrote.
Despite growing competitive pressures, some analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia’s long-term prospects.
According to Morning View’s analysis, Nvidia remains at the center of the global AI ecosystem and continues to benefit from what it described as a once-in-a-century AI infrastructure buildout.
The firm said it does not expect a meaningful slowdown in AI demand and believes Nvidia’s leadership position in AI infrastructure remains secure.
Morning View expects Nvidia’s AI GPU systems business to continue growing strongly through 2026 and 2027, supported by ongoing investments from major customers.
At the same time, the analysis acknowledged that Google and Amazon are likely to capture a larger share of future AI hardware spending through their proprietary chips.
Morning View said it expects Nvidia’s market share of AI infrastructure spending to decline over time but remain dominant, projecting the company will hold approximately 68% market share by 2030, compared with roughly 80% today.
Morningstar’s fair value estimate for Nvidia stands at $280 per share.
The firm said a bull-case scenario could support a valuation of $420 per share if Nvidia maintains its market share and reaches approximately $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
Conversely, Morningstar estimates a downside fair value of $180 per share if AI demand disappoints or if the market shifts more aggressively toward alternative processing architectures.
NVDA’s recent rebound appears to be losing momentum, with shares retreating toward the $206 level after failing to sustain a breakout above the $210-$212 resistance zone.
Technical indicators suggest near-term weakness remains intact.
The RSI has slipped below 40, indicating deteriorating momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory despite signs that downside pressure is easing.
Price action also continues to produce lower highs following the mid-June bounce.
For now, the stock appears range-bound between support around $202-$206 and resistance near $210-$212.
A move above the upper end of that range would suggest buyers are regaining control, while a break below support could signal a deeper pullback.
Overall, the chart points to a cautious, neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook rather than a clear trend reversal.
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]]>Intel stock (INTC) tumbled more than 6% on Tuesday as a broad technology selloff swept through markets, interrupting one of the strongest rallies in the semiconductor sector this year.
The decline came as investors appeared to reduce exposure to high-flying technology stocks ahead of the first Federal Reserve interest-rate decision under Chair Kevin Warsh.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%, weighed down by weakness across major technology names.
Advanced Micro Devices declined more than 4%, Broadcom lost over 3%, and Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft each fell more than 1%.
Despite the sharp pullback, Intel remains one of the semiconductor sector’s strongest performers in 2026.
The stock has gained more than 200% during the past six months and continues to trade near the upper end of its 52-week range.
Tuesday’s decline came as a rally that had pushed major indexes toward record highs began to lose momentum.
While most stocks within the S&P 500 traded higher, weakness in large-cap technology shares weighed on the Nasdaq.
At the same time, falling oil prices helped push bond yields lower.
Brent crude briefly dropped below $80 per barrel amid expectations that global energy supplies could increase.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved closer to record territory.
The latest pullback comes less than a week after Intel received a significant endorsement from Bank of America.
Last Thursday, BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya upgraded Intel shares to Buy from Underperform, bypassing the firm’s Neutral rating.
Arya also raised his price target to $135 from $96.
In a note to clients, Arya said growing confidence in Intel’s ability to capitalize on opportunities in server central processing units and semiconductor manufacturing services had led the firm to raise its sales and earnings forecasts.
According to BofA, Intel’s server CPU business could generate approximately $40 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
The firm estimates the total addressable market for server CPUs could reach roughly $170 billion by the end of the decade, implying Intel could capture about one-quarter of the market.
Intel’s resurgence has been closely tied to growing investor enthusiasm surrounding server CPUs and their role in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
While graphics processing units remain central to AI model training, many investors increasingly view CPUs as critical components of the expanding AI ecosystem, particularly as agentic AI applications require greater coordination, orchestration, and system management capabilities.
That shift has helped improve sentiment toward Intel after years of lagging competitors in the AI race.
BofA also highlighted Intel’s foundry business as an increasingly important source of future growth.
The segment, which was widely viewed as a major challenge for the company as recently as last year, remains unprofitable but is showing signs of gaining traction with customers.
According to the firm’s analysis, Intel is currently negotiating manufacturing agreements with several major technology companies, including Apple and Elon Musk’s Terafab project.
BofA argued that Intel remains under-owned by institutional investors despite its substantial market capitalization.
The firm noted that only 16% of major funds currently hold Intel shares, making it one of the least-owned semiconductor stocks within the S&P 500.
Only Sandisk has lower ownership among major semiconductor companies tracked by the firm.
Institutional ownership increased by approximately 3% from the prior month, but BofA believes there remains significant room for additional investors to establish positions.
The firm said broader ownership could become an important driver of future gains if more fund managers begin adding Intel shares to portfolios.
While the bullish outlook is not without risks—including increased competition from rivals such as Arm Holdings and the possibility of slower AI spending growth—BofA’s rare double upgrade underscored growing confidence that Intel’s turnaround remains intact.
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]]>Fox Corporation (FOXA) is being punished this morning after its management disclosed plans to spend a whopping $22 billion on buying Roku Inc (ROKU).
While the company’s leadership pitched the deal as a “defining moment” to merge live sports and news with a massive digital footprint, Fox investors are pushing back heavily.
Here’s why FOXA shares are being sold off following the ROKU announcement on Jun. 15.
Under the terms of the deal, Roku shareholders will receive $160 a share, structured as $96 in cash and 0.9693 Fox shares (Class A) for each ROKU share.
This means Roku shareholders will end up owning roughly 27% of the combined company.
Institutional investors generally dislike mega-mergers that rely heavily on issuing new stock, as it severely dilutes the ownership percentage and per-share earnings for existing shareholders.
To fund the cash portion of the transaction, FOXA is taking on substantial leverage. The company secured a $12 billion fully committed bridge financing facility from Morgan Stanley.
Investors are being sensitive to this massive new debt load, especially given that the legacy media firm is already grappling with structural declines in its traditional cable TV business.
They’re concerned that servicing this debt will eat into free cash flow and restrict future buybacks or dividend increases.
Roku’s historical success lies in its position as an agnostic, open platform that treats all streaming apps (Netflix, Disney+, Prime Video, etc.) equally.
Now that ROKU will be under Fox’s ownership, investors fear that this platform’s neutrality will be compromised.
If rival streaming networks believe FOXA will favour its own content (like Fox Sports, Fox News, or its free ad-supported streaming service, Tubi), they may alter their relationships with Roku.
This could threaten the company’s core advertising and subscription revenue split model, which would hurt Fox stock in the long run.
Fox pivoted away from expensive scripted streaming wars in 2019 by selling its entertainment assets to Disney to focus strictly on live news and sports.
Buying Roku for $22 billion – to some investors – feels like a massive, expensive U-turn back into a highly competitive, crowded digital ecosystem.
FOXA stock is also crashing because ROKU has gained some 20% on the buyout news, making the final price tag a steep pill for its shareholders to swallow.
In short, Fox investors feel the company is taking on too much debt and diluting too much equity to buy a platform whose core asset might be undermined by the acquisition itself.
Heading into Monday, Wall Street had a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and a $70 mean price target on Fox shares.
However, if analysts share the aforementioned investor concerns, it’s reasonable to assume that they might downwardly revise estimates for FOXA in the days ahead.
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]]>The S&P 500 Index and its top ETFs, like State Street’s SPY, Vanguard’s VOO, and BlackRock’s IVV jumped for two consecutive days. It jumped to $7,430, up modestly from this month’s low of $7,240. This article looks at some of the top news to watch this week.
The first main catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and other ETFs is the US-Iran deal to end the war. President Donald Trump confirmed that the US will sign a deal today. Iran, on the other hand, insisted that the deal may be signed at a later date and that it will do so electronically.
Still, there is a risk that a deal will flop as it has done in the past. For example, there is a likelihood that Israel and its lobby in the United States will work to undermine the deal. For example, Israel has committed to continuing fighting in Lebanon, where it has killed thousands of people.
A deal between the US and Iran will be bullish for the stock market. For one, it will lead to lower crude oil prices, which will lower inflation in the country. Data released last week showed that the headline Consumer and Producer price index jumped to 4.2% and 6.4% in May, respectively.
Such a move will also lead to lower bond yields. Indeed, the ten-year yield dropped to 4.8%, while the five-year fell to 4.21%. That is a sign that investors believe that the Federal Reserve will be dovish.
The S&P 500, IVV, SPY, and VOO ETFs will also react to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. This will be a crucial decision because it will be the first one by Kevin Warsh, whom Trump nominated to replace Jerome Powell.
Economists are unanimous in that the Fed will decide to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. As such, the headline rate decision will have a minimal impact on the stock market. Instead, traders will react to Warsh’s statement, which will provide more information on what to expect.
A hawkish tone will raise Fed independence concerns as it may start a feud between Warsh and Trump.
In addition to the Fed, the Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Brazilian, Swiss, Norges, and Russian central banks will also deliver their interest rate decisions this week.
There will also be some major macro news from the United States, including US retail sales, initial jobless claims, export and import prices, and industrial production.
The S&P 500 Index will also react to the performance of SpaceX, which went public on Friday. SpaceX’s stock jumped by 19%, with its market capitalization crossing the $2 trillion mark. This IPO made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
Still, while the SpaceX IPO was a success, the hard part will start this week. Historically, newly listed companies often retreat after a few days. As such, if this happens, there is a likelihood that the stock market will also retreat as investors start booking profits.
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]]>SpaceX (SPCX) made history on Friday – raising $75 billion in the largest IPO “ever” – promptly gaining 19% in its Nasdaq debut.
The frenzy is real, the story is compelling, but the valuation, hovering around the $2 trillion mark, is already priced for perfection.
And for investors who prefer conviction over crowd psychology, there is a quieter, more grounded opportunity worth considering – Nokia (NOK).
Most people still associate Nokia with the brick-like handsets that dominated the early 2000s. That era is long gone.
Today, Nokia is a global communications infrastructure firm operating across four major business segments – mobile networks, network infrastructure, cloud and network services, and Nokia tech – selling equipment to carriers, hyperscalers, and data center operators across more than 100 countries.
In 2026, the brand licensing operation that handles the phone business is a footnote; the real story is in optical networks, IP routing, and next-generation wireless buildout.
Bank of America Securities now characterizes Nokia as a key data center interconnect and optical transport player, not merely a traditional mobile gear vendor.
And that rebranding is backed by hard numbers. Nokia’s Q1 results showed a 49% year-over-year growth in AI and cloud net sales, alongside €1 billion in orders from AI and cloud customers.
The company raised its “network infrastructure” growth expectations for the full year, particularly for its optical networks and IP networks subsegments that are critical for AI and cloud data centers.
All in all, Nokia stock is not a turnaround story anymore – it’s an infrastructure story with genuine momentum.
The single most “underappreciated” development in Nokia’s recent history is the depth of its team-up with Nvidia.
In late 2025, Nvidia made a direct equity investment in Nokia at $6.01 per share – a huge credibility signal that the broader market has been slow to fully price in.
The two companies are collaborating on AI-powered radio access network tech aimed at building the infrastructure backbone for the 6G era, at a moment when global internet traffic is exploding.
According to Nokia’s own projections, global network traffic is expected to grow roughly fivefold from 2024 levels through 2034, with AI workloads accounting for a disproportionate share of that demand.
Nokia opened an AI Networking Innovation Lab in Sunnyvale this May, a facility designed to co-develop next-generation networks for AI data centers alongside cloud and AI partners.
The SpaceX IPO is a genuine technological marvel wrapped in a financial instrument that demands you believe everything goes right, forever, from day one.
At its session high on Friday, SpaceX briefly touched a market cap approaching $2.21 trillion – a figure that leaves virtually no room for error, execution risk, or the “ordinary turbulence” that every young public company faces.
Let’s face it: history is littered with transformative firms that proved terrible early IPO investments precisely because the hype front-ran the fundamentals by years.
Nokia stock, by contrast, offers a different kind of proposition. With about $19.22 billion in annual revenue and a market cap of $82 billion, it trades at a meaningful discount to sales.
It’s an almost paradoxical setup for a business posting 49% artificial intelligence (AI) sales growth and attracting NVDA as a strategic investor.
NOK shares outperformed the broader technology equipment sector on Friday, even as the market’s attention was consumed entirely by the SpaceX spectacle – a quiet reminder that the most durable gains are often made away from the spotlight.
For investors who want real AI infrastructure exposure without paying a “once-in-a-generation” premium to get it, Nokia deserves a serious look, especially since Wall Street firms also currently rate it at “Overweight”.
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]]>Tesla (TSLA) shares fell on Friday as SpaceX made its stock market debut at $150 per share, fueling speculation among some investors that capital may be rotating from Tesla into SpaceX.
Tesla stock was down by about 2.36% in late morning trading, after spending much of the morning swinging between mild gains and losses.
Shares have swung more than 3% in either direction during each of the past five trading days, with market participants increasingly linking some of that turbulence to SpaceX’s blockbuster public offering.
SpaceX opened at $150 per share, much below earlier indications near $175 but still roughly 11% above the IPO price of $135.
Soon after, the stock topped $160, pushing the company above a $2 trillion market cap.
“I believe many retail investors buying $SPCX this week will lighten up on their TSLA positions to fund their SPCX shares,” Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, wrote on X yesterday.
Research firm Trefis said SpaceX’s public debut has created a direct comparison between Musk’s two largest corporate bets.
“SpaceX (SPCX) hits public markets today at a touted $1.75 trillion valuation, and for the first time, investors have to choose between two of Musk’s biggest bets – SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA) – rather than just one,” the firm said.
According to Trefis, both companies trade primarily on future expectations rather than traditional valuation measures.
Yet the nature of those expectations differs significantly.
The firm’s analysis suggests SpaceX enters public markets with a valuation exceeding 90 times trailing sales, compared with Tesla’s roughly 14 times sales multiple.
While both metrics imply lofty valuations, Trefis argued that investors are buying very different business models.
Tesla’s investment case has evolved considerably from its early years as an electric vehicle disruptor.
The company reported 2025 revenue of $94.8 billion, down 3% from the previous year.
Automotive revenue declined 10% to $69.5 billion, marking Tesla’s first annual revenue contraction.
Vehicle deliveries also fell 9%, while operating margins continued a multi-year decline.
Competition has intensified as Chinese automaker BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s largest electric vehicle seller in 2025, delivering 2.26 million vehicles.
As a result, investors have increasingly shifted their focus away from Tesla’s car business and toward future projects such as robotaxis, autonomous driving software, and the Optimus humanoid robot.
Trefis argued that the company’s bull case now depends largely on those initiatives.
“So the bull case has shifted — from EV leader to physical AI company. It now rests on the Optimus robot and the robotaxi network. The problem is that none of these is a slam dunk,” the firm said.
The report also highlighted growing competition in autonomous driving, noting that Alphabet’s Waymo currently operates more fully autonomous taxis and has accumulated more real-world driverless miles.
However, analysts at The Motley Fool have suggested that Tesla could be an attractive buy today if shares decline amid the SpaceX IPO hype.
By contrast, Trefis argues that SpaceX’s core operations are already producing tangible results.
The company generated $18.7 billion in revenue during 2025, with Starlink contributing $11.4 billion.
The satellite internet business delivered a 63% EBITDA margin while revenue grew 86% year over year.
Although SpaceX reported a consolidated net loss of $4.9 billion, much of that stemmed from losses at xAI, which recorded a $6.4 billion operating deficit as it expanded data center capacity and AI infrastructure.
Excluding xAI, the company’s financial profile appears substantially stronger.
Trefis noted that Starlink’s subscriber base expanded from 2.3 million users in 2023 to 8.9 million by the end of 2025 before reaching 10.3 million by March 2026 across 164 countries.
The company recently increased Starlink subscription prices, a move analysts interpreted as evidence of growing pricing power.
The launch business remains another major competitive advantage.
SpaceX increased launches from 98 in 2023 to 170 in 2025 and currently controls roughly 60% of the global launch market.
Competitors remain years behind in reusable rocket technology, reinforcing SpaceX’s dominant position.
The biggest uncertainty within SpaceX remains xAI.
While the unit generated $3.2 billion in revenue last year, it also posted substantial operating losses.
Nevertheless, Trefis noted that the business is already monetizing data-center capacity through contracts with major technology firms, including Google and Anthropic.
Longer term, investors are closely watching SpaceX’s ambitions around orbital data centers, which could eventually provide computing capacity in space.
The concept remains speculative, but proponents argue it could offer significant advantages in cooling efficiency and energy economics.
For now, investors appear willing to assign considerable value to those possibilities.
“SpaceX is expensive because it’s winning. Tesla is expensive because investors are hoping it will,” Trefis wrote.
“SpaceX at $135 is not cheap. At 90x sales, it may not even be a good investment. But between the two Musk narratives, it is the one with more evidence, stronger moats, and fewer assumptions doing the heavy lifting,” the firm concluded.
Analysts at The Motley Fool think differently.
“Both of these stocks look highly expensive, but if I were buying one of them, it would be Tesla, simply because it already has some strong financials, and its business is in much stronger shape, making it a safer option,” wrote David Jagielski of The Motley Fool.
He added that SpaceX faces the challenge of funding highly ambitious growth plans that are likely to require significant capital raising in the years ahead.
The stock could also experience considerable volatility following its market debut.
“Although investors may be hopeful of an early rally, there’s also a strong possibility that it could end up crashing under the weight of its massive valuation. Tesla would, by default, become the safer and better overall stock to buy,” he said.
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]]>Oppenheimer has become the first global brokerage to initiate coverage of SpaceX stock ahead of the company’s Nasdaq debut on Friday, issuing an Outperform rating and a $190 price target.
Its call implied about a 41% upside that would push SPCX market cap to a whopping $2.5 trillion within the next 12 to 18 months – a bold opening salvo as the most anticipated IPO in market history prepares to begin trading on June 12.
At the heart of Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan’s bullish case is a simple but sweeping claim: SpaceX is unique.
In his research note, he described it as the only vertically integrated AI company in the world with the simultaneous combination of capital, proprietary data, large language models, specialised hardware, manufacturing scale, and engineering talent.
According to him, SpaceX intends to merge communications and cloud computing with artificial intelligence through space-based infrastructure – an ambition no rival can replicate end-to-end.
That integration, the firm believes, positions SPCX shares to address a total addressable market of an exciting $10 trillion within the next 10 years, making the firm’s $1.75 trillion IPO valuation look modest in context.
The financial backbone underpinning Oppenheimer’s conviction is Starlink which generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, representing a remarkable 50% increase on a year-over-year basis.
And this was achieved at a staggering 63% EBITDA margin (adjusted) – with more than 12 million subscribers across 164 countries as of March.
Layered on top is a rapidly monetising AI infrastructure business.
SpaceX’s Colossus data centres, built at a cost of $12.7 billion in AI capex in 2025 alone, are now contracted to Anthropic at $1.25 billion per month and to Google at $920 million per month through 2029.
Together, these deals represent about $26 billion in annualised compute revenue and fundamentally transform the company’s earnings picture, reinforcing that SpaceX shares could rip higher through the remainder of 2026.
Beyond the longer-term thesis, Oppenheimer highlights two “structural tailwinds” that could drive SPCX stock higher in the immediate aftermath of the IPO.
The float at launch represents just 5% of total shares outstanding, creating a kind of demand-supply imbalance that Horan explicitly flagged in his note – driven by retail appetite and the likelihood of accelerated inclusion in major indices.
SpaceX’s initial public offering has already drawn more than $70 billion in retail orders – further underscoring the scale of that demand.
All in all, with underwriters including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley observing what is commonly known as a post-listing quiet period, Oppenheimer currently stands among the very few names prepared to tell investors the stock is worth buying at $135.
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